Aframax Positioning – October 2025 Outlook

By Max Leyshon

Current analysis of positioning data indicates that Aframax availability in the North Sea and Western Europe is tighter than in the Mediterranean, with NWE tightness being 0.66 compared to 0.5 in the Med[1]. The two main drivers of this are: relets have been held back by charterers, and secondly some vessels are ballasting out of the NWE region and heading towards the Med to capitalise on higher rates. This has been compounded by tonnage moving to the US markets at the end of September.

In North Western Europe current demand is steady, this is reflected by less vessels ballasting in the region and a tightness of 0.66. Current tonnage availability is tight for Aframaxes and spot fixtures are less viable for charterers. The TD7 route rates have remained steady since the initial surge from WS115 in August to the highs of WS140 in September[2], with a continuation of this in October. Charter demand is likely to remain strong towards the end of October as third decade fixtures are expected to increase relative to the previous weeks, meaning charterers may struggle to find early positions. Hence, the strong rates are expected to hold.

Comparatively, in the Med there is more available tonnage, with a tightness value of 0.5, there is more opportunities for spot fixtures. However, due some congestion in the Med, charter rates remain strong, with N.Africa/Euromed rates seeing a surge from WS130 to WS157.5 across the month of October. Although tightness is lower compared to North Western Europe, there still remains sufficient demand to keep rates buoyant and it can be expected that this trend will continue, notably both the demand for the TD18 and TD19 routes looks strong.

Figure 1: Image showing Aframax positions in the Mediterranean

Overall, rates across both basins are expected to remain broadly stable in the near term, with current levels of vessel tightness unlikely to exert significant upward pressure. However, a potential surge in demand on Baltic and Black Sea routes could emerge if expectations of an oil supply glut in 2026 materialise[3]. In anticipation, charterers may seek to maximise liftings through Q4 to capitalise on current margins before any softening in oil prices. This evolving dynamic warrants close monitoring in the weeks ahead.

[1] Value comes from the analysis of AIS data 09/10/25

[2] WS rates from Fearnleys’ weekly report

[3] International Energy Agency (IEA) predictions, via market reports